Weather has a strong impact on the lives of Australians. Hazardous weather can affect our safety, environment, economy and communities.
We are constantly researching and improving how we predict high impact weather such as bushfires, tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, heavy rain, destructive winds and aviation hazards.
To do this, we use numerical modelling and data from radars, satellites and other observing platforms. We also use statistical methods to increase the value of information generated from the model's outputs. For more about numerical models, view our Earth system models research page.
Forecasting severe weather
Our work to understand and predict severe weather includes research and system development for:
- tropical cyclone behaviour, especially winds near the surface and how ocean waves respond
- severe thunderstorms, including diagnosing and predicting lightning, large hail, heavy rain and damaging wind
- how to apply ensemble prediction (more than one forecast) to severe weather.
An important part of our work is to understand, model and predict weather conditions associated with bushfires and their behaviour. This includes predicting how bushfires and the atmosphere interact with each other.
For example, intense bushfires can create their own thunderstorm clouds, called pyrocumulonimbus clouds. These can cause dangerous changes in fire behaviour, including lightning strikes that cause new fires. We have developed a tool that predicts their formation, intensity and overall danger. We're working to make this routinely available to specialist fire weather meteorologists and fire agency staff.
We also simulate how embers, topography, and atmospheric conditions influence the spread of bushfire in the landscape.
Learn how fires make thunderstorms.
A pyrocumulonimbus cloud over the Alpine National Park, Australia, during the 2019–2020 fires. Credit: Merrin Macleod.
Thunderstorms formed in the smoke plumes of intense bushfires can affect fire behaviour.
Predicting aviation hazards
The aviation industry relies heavily on weather information to operate safely and efficiently. Aircraft need to avoid hazards such as volcanic ash, fog, low clouds, turbulence, icing, wind extremes, thunderstorms and areas of high ice water content.
Our research improves the services we offer this industry, for example:
- real-time ensemble dispersion modelling to forecast the movement of volcanic ash plumes
- numerical model simulations of fog
- detecting and predicting aviation hazards with combinations of radar, satellite, numerical weather prediction and surface-based data
- forecasts for aviation hazards, both en-route and at airport terminals, developed in consultation with the sector.
Our research helps aviators avoid hazards such as volcanic ash clouds, shown here during the 2017 eruption of Mount Agung volcano in Indonesia
Using satellites to observe weather
Satellites give us high-quality images and detailed insights about our atmosphere, ocean and land. These help better understand and predict the weather. Our research aims to:
- prepare data from satellite instruments, including sounders (which measure infrared and microwave radiation), for input to weather prediction models
- provide situational awareness guidance to weather forecasters – including for severe weather, particularly beyond the range of our weather radars
- improve the use of satellite data to detect heavy rain and track showers and thunderstorms on a national scale
- enhance the quality and availability of solar energy information, vegetation and soil moisture measures, and the temperature of the ocean surface
- develop new techniques to combine satellite and ground-based observations to provide national information
- support the development of meteorological satellite missions and identify the potential impact of their observations.
Using radar science
To improve our use of radar for observing and predicting weather, we research:
- the quality of radar measurements through calibration and quality control
- better using critical radar fields for severe storm detection and forecasting
- rainfall analysis and forecasts
- using long-term radar observations to study weather processes
- using observations from radar and lidar (an instrument that uses laser light waves) to evaluate simulations from weather models and products from satellite data.
Improving forecasts
Enhancing the quality of our forecasts
We use statistical approaches to improve the quality of our forecasts and warnings. This helps us automate forecasts in routine weather conditions. To do this, we:
- adjust model forecasts to remove systematic errors that are identified by comparing recent model forecasts to observed conditions
- use multi-model ensemble predictions of temperature, rainfall, wind, and other weather elements
- produce reliable probability-based guidance that describes how likely certain weather conditions are to happen.
Developing forecast systems
Forecast systems are the tools we use to create forecasts. To improve these systems for use by the Bureau's meteorologists, we:
- analyse and refine production processes for our public weather, marine and fire weather forecasts
- design and construct tools that enable greater automation of forecasting
- develop software that transforms data into natural language forecasts
- develop and apply verification software to all our forecasts from models and meteorologists, to determine where humans add value in the forecast process.