Record heat and elevated fire dangers are set to impact much of central and eastern Australia in the coming days. We can see that firstly with our heatwave product. While it is triggering for some areas where we're going to see that record heat, it's not triggering so much overall. That’s because at the Bureau we define heatwaves as three consecutive days where both the maximum and minimum temperatures are well above average for this time of year.

Those conditions are being met through parts of Queensland and north-eastern parts of New South Wales in the coming days. But the heat that we're experiencing further to the south and west of there is only just one hot day and night, as I'll show you quickly. As we move into midweek, you'll see this heat risk contract into northern parts of Queensland and the NT while still lingering through north-eastern parts of New South Wales. By the time we get to the end of the week, we'll see those heatwave conditions really starting to pick up across much of northern Australia.

It is the near-record heat that I really want to focus on today. This is the maximum temperature forecast for this afternoon through parts of South Australia, Queensland and north-western parts of New South Wales. As you can see, we're looking at temperatures in the low to mid-40s. This is typical of summer, let alone mid to late October. That’s why we could see a number of record temperatures occur through inland parts of Australia today. That heat doesn’t move much as we head into tomorrow. It just shifts slightly further east and south.

We could see another day of near-record temperatures for October through western and southern parts of Queensland, north-eastern parts of South Australia, and northern and north-western parts of New South Wales. Our focus will then shift down into eastern parts of New South Wales on Wednesday, and that's going to cause some pretty elevated fire dangers combined with very strong winds. Sydney could see 38 °C, and we could get up into the 40s in the western suburbs. On Thursday, that heat moves into south-eastern Queensland with temperatures around 35 °C through Brisbane, and into the high 30s in the western suburbs.

In terms of fire dangers, there’s not much wind today and tomorrow through parts of northern South Australia, Queensland and New South Wales, so we're just looking at moderate to high fire dangers. The high fire danger risk does start increasing tomorrow through much of South Australia and Queensland. But it’s really on Wednesday that we’re going to see a big increase in fire dangers for much of New South Wales, with high fire dangers expected for many districts. At this stage, we're expecting extreme fire dangers for the Hunter, the Sydney metropolitan area and the Illawarra, as these hot conditions are going to be combined with strong and gusty winds — possibly damaging for some elevated areas as well.

So what’s driving all of this? Firstly, we can see a surface trough line through inland parts of the country. That’s dragging down some hot north-northwesterly winds into central parts of the country today and again tomorrow, where temperatures are climbing into the 40s, with the mid to high 30s extending right across inland New South Wales. The driver of this heat towards the east coast will be a low-pressure system in South Australia. That will bring widespread rain and storms in South Australia on Tuesday, and then into Victoria and inland New South Wales on Wednesday. We do have a Weather Update on that system, so make sure you check out the video for more information.

On the north side of this low, it's going to combine with the trough and drag that heat down into eastern parts of New South Wales on Wednesday morning and afternoon. We could see winds gusting 60–80 km/h through coastal areas and possibly reaching 100 km/h for elevated areas around the Illawarra escarpment and out towards the Blue Mountains. Combined with temperatures in the mid to high 30s, this is leading to those extreme fire dangers.

The only saving grace is that the air is not going to be super dry as we normally see with these conditions, so there’s a little bit of moisture in the atmosphere. But regardless, hot, dry and windy weather is likely on Wednesday, leading to elevated and extreme fire dangers for populated centres through the Hunter, Sydney and the Illawarra. Thankfully, by Thursday night, a cool change will be moving right across south-eastern parts of the country.

Unfortunately, the heat is likely to continue through much of Queensland this week and even into the weekend. With lots of heat ongoing around the country and elevated fire dangers with damaging winds midweek — particularly around the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra areas — make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and app, and we’ll continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.