Damaging winds and severe thunderstorms are possible across much of eastern Australia over the next couple of days as a cold front moves through. We're going to take a look at both the wind and storm risk, but we'll start with the damaging winds.

Now we're looking above the surface here around one and a half Kms above the ground. That'll give us a good sense of how strong those top wind gusts might be as they move through. We've got a burst of windy weather moving through with a weak cold front crossing Tasmania later tonight. We could see some strong and gusty winds through Tassie through that period, but we're not likely to see widespread damaging winds there.

However, into tomorrow morning, winds will start to pick up across Victoria, including across parts of the Melbourne area. We will then see another burst of strong winds as a stronger cold front moves through on Friday night going into Saturday, and that risk is likely to become quite more, quite a bit more extensive through Victoria and southern New South Wales.

Now, in anticipation of that risk, we do have severe weather warnings current for both Victoria and New South Wales for damaging winds. In Victoria that covers many of our elevated areas, but also covers the northern suburbs of Melbourne and parts of the Mornington Peninsula. That risk is most likely from Friday morning through to Saturday. In southeast alpine, New South Wales our risk is from Friday afternoon and it's mainly about those elevated peaks of the south east.

Let's take a look at the thunderstorm risk over the next couple of days now. We're going to see a smattering of rain coming through the southeast with our first week a cold front mainly impacting Tasmania. However, as we go through Friday morning, rain will start to ramp up across those inland parts of the east, pushing back into parts of South Australia too.

As a strong cold front moves through late Friday into Saturday, we'll see the rain continuing through the east. As it moves offshore during Saturday rain will contract to north east New South Wales and south east Queensland before gradually clearing late Saturday into Sunday. A few showers will linger in the south with yet another cold front moving through, but they're unlikely to push inland.

Now, I did mention that thunderstorms are going to be playing a big part in our rainfall totals over the next couple of days. So let's take a look at our thunderstorm forecasts. For tomorrow thunderstorms are possible across much of the east from southern inland Queensland, all the way down to Victoria. Parts of Tasmania, South Australia and central Australia also may see thunderstorms through our Friday.

But we've got a number of yellow areas on this map indicating where severe storms are possible. For the most part, severe storms are likely in the afternoon on Friday and could bring us some damaging wind gusts. That is the main concern with any severe storms tomorrow. However, large hail could also be a risk through parts of north east Victoria and southern inland New South Wales, as well as about these inland parts south east Queensland and north east New South Wales. Again, this risk is most likely through Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday.

Our thunderstorm forecast contracts to north east New South Wales and south east Queensland. Brisbane may see a storm on Saturday, but the risk of severe storms is further inland for southern Queensland. For north east New South Wales, we could see some of those severe storms reaching the mid-north coast. Now, severe storms on Saturday could bring us the risk of damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy falls that could lead to some flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are really going to bring us our highest rainfall totals over the next couple of days. Looking at accumulative rainfall from midnight last night all the way out to 11:00 on Saturday, we can see that most areas are looking at fairly low rainfall totals. Ten millimeters or less is really expected through that period. We do get some high falls banking up along the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range. This weather is coming in from the west and pushing against those ranges. But even then, the rainfall totals are fairly patchy. That tells us that they're going to be driven mostly by thunderstorms over the next couple of days. So keeping an eye on the radar through Friday and Saturday is a really good way to track that wet weather.

The exception is going to be Tasmania, which is going to see more, more consistent showers through the next few days. You can see the higher rainfall accumulations through the west and the north expected for that state there.

So certainly with the risk of both damaging winds in the south east and severe thunderstorms for multiple states, it is essential to stay on top of the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau's website, the BOM Weather app and via social media. Stay safe and we'll catch you next time.