Our long range forecast shows:
- November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across parts of northern Australia, across parts of northern Australia.
- But elsewhere there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
- And days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country.
September temperatures were above average for large parts of Australia, and near average for parts of central, western and south-eastern Australia.
Rainfall in September was below average for much of southern and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the east coast. It was above average in much of the tropical north, central Australia and western Tasmania. And Cairns had its wettest September on record.
Warm and dry conditions in recent weeks have dried soils across much of Victoria, New South Wales and southern Queensland. However, root zone soil moisture currently remains above average for large parts of northern and western Australia, as well as western Tasmania.
September rainfall has eased the severity of rainfall deficiencies for the year to date in western Tasmania. However, rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of the mainland’s south-east, especially across central Victoria.
Looking ahead, sea surface temperatures for November to January are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around Australia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral; however, La Niña development is possible over spring. To our west, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway.
Daytime temperatures for November to January are likely to be above average for much of Australia, while overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average almost nationwide.
November to January rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of northern Australia, particularly over far northern Queensland. Elsewhere, the forecast signal is mostly weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For October to December, near median to high streamflow is likely along the east coast, northern Tasmania and the south-west of Western Australia. Low flow is more likely for parts of the mainland’s south-east and north-east.
We update our long-range forecasts regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit bom.gov.au/climate
- November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across parts of northern Australia, across parts of northern Australia.
- But elsewhere there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
- And days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country.
September temperatures were above average for large parts of Australia, and near average for parts of central, western and south-eastern Australia.
Rainfall in September was below average for much of southern and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the east coast. It was above average in much of the tropical north, central Australia and western Tasmania. And Cairns had its wettest September on record.
Warm and dry conditions in recent weeks have dried soils across much of Victoria, New South Wales and southern Queensland. However, root zone soil moisture currently remains above average for large parts of northern and western Australia, as well as western Tasmania.
September rainfall has eased the severity of rainfall deficiencies for the year to date in western Tasmania. However, rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of the mainland’s south-east, especially across central Victoria.
Looking ahead, sea surface temperatures for November to January are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around Australia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral; however, La Niña development is possible over spring. To our west, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway.
Daytime temperatures for November to January are likely to be above average for much of Australia, while overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average almost nationwide.
November to January rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of northern Australia, particularly over far northern Queensland. Elsewhere, the forecast signal is mostly weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For October to December, near median to high streamflow is likely along the east coast, northern Tasmania and the south-west of Western Australia. Low flow is more likely for parts of the mainland’s south-east and north-east.
We update our long-range forecasts regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit bom.gov.au/climate
Long-range forecast: First look – November 2025 to January 2026
16 October 2025
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.