East coast lows

Learn about east coast lows, how they form, why they are dangerous and how they're different to cyclones

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What is an east coast low?

East coast lows are a climate driver for Australia. Some of our worst maritime disasters are caused by the destructive winds, torrential rainfall and rough seas that come with stronger east coast lows.

These intense low pressure systems happen, on average, several times each year off the continent's eastern coast. Particularly, in southern Queensland, New South Wales and eastern Victoria.

They can occur at any time of year but are more common during autumn and winter, most frequently in June.

East coast lows often intensify quickly over 12–24 hours. This makes them one of the more dangerous weather systems to affect the eastern coast.

They also happen off the coast of Africa and America and are sometimes called east coast cyclones.

Video: Ask the Bureau: What is an east coast low?

East Coast Lows are intense low pressure systems that often produce severe weather, and as the name suggests they form off the east coast of Australia, in fact in all of the New South Wales coast, southeast Queensland coastline and far eastern Victoria, and sometimes Tasmania.

Australia's regularly impacted by normal lows and cold fronts, they're transient in nature and they sweep through and their effects are fairly short-lived. In contrast to that, East Coast Lows can be quite slow-moving or even near-stationary, and that means their effects can last much longer. So they do produce prolonged periods of heavy rainfall which does lead to both flash flooding and flooding of the major rivers, they produce damaging wind gusts, and with the wild winds they whip up very large seas which can lead to coastal erosion, and when it coincides with high tides even local coastal inundation. And all of these conditions are hazardous, including for marine users. East Coast Lows form in a variety of ways; they can be associated with cold fronts or coastal troughs, or even ex-tropical cyclones as they decay and move south. But some of the most powerful ones that we've seen throughout our history are associated with a fairly complex interaction with the upper atmosphere as well.

The development generally starts when some cold air that's well down south of Australia normally starts to push up over New South Wales/Victoria, and above all of that cold air in the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere becomes separated and slow-moving over New South Wales. Now ahead of that bubble the atmosphere is generally rising ahead of it, and as it comes far enough east and interacts with the East Australian Current which brings relatively warm water off the east coast, we start to see a low pressure develop off the east coast of Australia. Now as these two systems interact, that low pressure begins to intensify and deepen, and that starts to lead to wilder weather on the coastline. Sometimes we have high pressure to the south cradling this system, and the effects of the winds flowing out from the high and also with the low really converges in on the southern flank, causing the weather to be much worse on the south side of these East Coast Lows. Now these wild winds sweep in off the coastline bringing the moisture with them, and it flows up and over the Great Dividing Range and as it does so it releases all of the rainfall and that's where the flooding concerned can come from.

The peak season for development is the late autumn and winter period, however we can see East Coast Lows all year round and the eastern seaboard typically sees multiple events every year and they range in their intensity and severity. We often get asked how East Coast Lows are different from tropical cyclones and that's because sometimes the impact and the way they look on radar can be fairly similar. But they're a completely different weather system and they form in different ways. Tropical cyclones need the warm tropical water to survive, whereas East Coast Lows don't and that's why they can form so much further south. In terms of strength, East Coast Lows the really intense one can produce winds of strength of Category 1 or even a Category 2 cyclone. They're generally a little bit more short-lived than a tropical cyclone, but in terms of their peak intensity they can be fairly similar to a tropical cyclone.

Because East Coast Lows produce such dangerous severe weather it's really important to have a pre-prepared plan for how you and your family will stay safe during these events, and if you hear the term 'East Coast Low' in the media it's a really key time to tune into the latest forecasts and warnings, and listening to advice from emergency services can be critical to being prepared and staying safe.

How east coast lows form

East coast lows can form in a range of weather situations.

In summer, they can develop from ex-tropical cyclones as these decay and move south.

At other times of the year, east coast lows often develop rapidly just offshore. This can happen within an existing trough of low pressure, due to favourable conditions in the upper atmosphere combined with warm sea surface temperatures.

East coast lows may also develop in the wake of a cold front moving across from Victoria into the Tasman Sea. The warm sea surface temperatures associated with the East Australian Current are also an important factor contributing to the development of the systems. The sea surface temperature gradients associated with the warm eddies of the East Australian Current help the lows develop.

Gales and heavy rains can often occur on and near the coast south of the low centre, while there can be clear skies to the north of the low. The challenge for forecasters is to accurately predict the location, movement and intensity of the centre of the low.

How often east coast lows form

Each year there are about 10 east coast lows that have significant impact. We generally only see 'explosive' development about once a year.

Looking at all the lows detailed in our database since 1973, there is no evidence of a trend.

Why east coast lows are dangerous

East coast lows can create one or more of:

  • gale or storm force winds along the coast and adjacent waters
  • widespread heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding and major river flooding
  • very rough seas and prolonged heavy swells over coastal and ocean waters, which can damage the coastline.

During past east coast lows:

  • falling trees and flash flooding have caused loss of life
  • many small craft have been lost off the coast
  • larger vessels have run aground.
Beach area in foreground with a large ship towering over it on the left side of the image. To the right, the view stretches across the sea to the horizon. A wave is breaking on the ship.

Pasha Bulker was grounded on a reef just off Nobby's Beach near Newcastle, NSW, by an east coast low in June 2007. Credit: Brett Delaney, ex-Bureau weather observer.

Differences between east coast lows and tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones develop over very warm tropical waters where the sea surface temperature is greater than 26° C. This gives them a unique structure and behaviour, very different from an east coast low. They have relatively long life cycles – typically about a week.

Severe tropical cyclones can produce:

  • significant property damage with wind speeds over 180 km/h near the centre
  • heavy rainfall
  • coastal inundation (flooding) through storm surge.

East coast lows can produce:

  • gale to storm-force winds
  • heavy rainfall
  • in some cases, coastal inundation.

While maximum wind speeds recorded are lower than in severe tropical cyclones, significant gusts have been recorded at Newcastle:

  • in 1974, a gust of 165 km/h associated with the east coast low that sunk the bulk carrier Sygna
  • in 2007, gusts of 105 km/h at 6:21 am on 8 June and 124 km/h at 1:32 am on 9 June when the bulk carrier Pasha Bulker ran aground. This was the first of 5 east coast lows that year.

For more information about cyclones, view our Tropical cyclone knowledge centre.

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