What is a long-range forecast?
Long-range forecasts show likely rainfall and temperature for the weeks, months and seasons ahead.
The forecasts are based on the latest information and are updated regularly. They are designed for anyone wanting to plan beyond the next 7 days.
Long-range forecasts are used by a wide range of Australians every day including farmers, water managers, industry and emergency service organisations.
Video: Spotlight on using the long-range forecasts – An introduction
While our 7-day forecast is the best guide for weather and warnings for the coming week, our long-range forecast is a useful tool to help plan beyond the next 7 days. It is updated regularly. You can find the long-range forecast on the Bureau's website.
Explore the maps that show the likely conditions including the chance of more or less rainfall than usual for the coming weeks, month, or 3 months. This includes the chance of it being unusually wet or dry. The chance of different amounts of rainfall, at least a certain amount, or what's typical for this time of year.
Select your location to explore your likely rainfall in more detail. You can do the same for temperature – including the chance of unusually warm or cool days across the country or for your area. You can also explore night-time temperature.
The long-range forecasts are based on the latest information at the time the forecast is issued. This includes current conditions from sources like satellites, radars, ocean buoys and weather stations. These observations feed into our computer model to give us a range of possible outcomes and the chance of them occurring. Just like the 7-day weather forecast, the closer we are in time, the clearer the forecast becomes.
Looking further ahead increases the range of possible scenarios. Because our weather and climate systems are always on the move and changing all the time, the forecast also changes in response to the latest conditions.
While we use the latest science and observations to make our long-range forecasts as accurate as possible, there's never a guarantee of what will happen. It's the best guidance from all the information available and is updated as conditions evolve. We update the one and two-week forecasts every day. Monthly and seasonal forecasts update every week.
Follow the long-range forecast on the Bureau's website to get the latest information.
How to use long-range forecasts
You'll find the long-range forecasts on our current website. There are a range of maps about rainfall and temperature.
Select your location on the maps to explore likely conditions. For example, on the rainfall map you can view the chance of:
- receiving more or less rainfall than usual
- conditions being unusually wet or dry
- receiving different amounts of rainfall.
You can also see what's typical for this time of year.
The temperature maps work in the same way. For example, you can view the chance of unusually warm or cool days or nights.
In the long-range forecasts, the likelihood of rainfall and temperature is given as a percentage chance. A high percentage chance means there's a high chance of more rain than usual. It doesn't mean that the amount of rain is going to be a lot more than usual.
Video: Spotlight on using the long-range forecasts – Likely conditions
The long-range forecast gives the percentage chance of rainfall and temperature being above average in each area. When areas of the forecast map are dark blue, it means there's a high chance it will be wetter than usual. It doesn't mean that the amount of rainfall is going to be much more than usual. It tells us there’s a high chance of it being more than usual.
The darkest blue means there's at least an 80% chance of rainfall being above the typical amount. At the same time, those areas in dark blue may also have a 20% or less chance of reduced rainfall. That's a low chance so while it's very unlikely, it is still a possibility.
When areas of the forecast map are dark brown, it means there's a high chance it will be drier than usual. There might be at most a 20% chance of more rainfall than the typical amount. Again, it's a possibility, but it's very unlikely.
The long-range forecast is based on the latest information at the time the forecast is issued. While we use the latest science and observations to make our long-range forecasts as accurate as possible, there's never a guarantee of what will happen.
Our long-range forecast does not predict short-term severe weather events, like a tropical cyclone or a low pressure system, that can have a big impact on the final observed rainfall and temperature. We have other detailed weather models for severe weather that feed into our 7-day forecasts and warnings.
Because our weather and climate systems are always on the move and changing all the time, the forecast also changes in response to the latest conditions.
We update the one and two-week forecasts every day. Monthly and seasonal forecasts update every week. Follow the long-range forecast on the Bureau's website to get the latest information.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts
While our 7-day forecasts can give you likely conditions for a particular day, long-range forecasts can't be this specific. This is because they look much further ahead.
They are also not designed to forecast the impact of short-term events such as tropical cyclones weeks in advance. Severe weather events can have a big impact on the final observed rainfall and temperature. The expected impact of such events is covered in our 7-day forecasts and warnings.
Long-range forecasts are based on the latest available data when issued. As weather and climate systems constantly evolve, we update the forecasts regularly:
- One-week and 2-week forecasts are updated daily.
- Monthly and seasonal forecasts are updated weekly.
For more information about the climate models and process used to deliver these forecasts, see Producing long-range forecasts.
Explainer video series
Visit our Spotlight on using long-range forecasts playlist on YouTube for more short videos with our experts. They cover topics including:
- What's my chance of rainfall?
- How much rainfall will I get?
- What's my chance of different rainfall totals?
- What do white areas mean on the rainfall map?
- What does red mean on temperature maps?