Delivering accurate forecasts
Measuring accuracy is a key part of assessing the performance of our forecasts.
We do this by comparing our forecasts to actual weather data. This data is recorded by our observation network.
To improve our forecasts, we increase:
- understanding of the atmosphere
- resolution of our forecast models – spatial and temporal
- number and type of observations these models use
- skill and knowledge of our forecasters, staying up to date with the latest science.
Temperature forecasts
Temperature forecasts are considered accurate if they were within 2 °C of actual temperatures.

Over 2023–24, next day maximum temperature forecasts were accurate 90.9% of the time. Overnight minimum temperature forecasts were accurate 82.4% of the time.

Forecast maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day across 500 locations that were accurate to within 2 °C, showing year-to-year changes
Rainfall forecasts
While weather elements like temperature and wind can be the same across large areas, rainfall varies much more. There can be large differences across small areas as showers move across, raining in some places and missing others. That's why our forecasts include information about the chance of any rain, along with a possible expected rainfall range.
The possible rainfall range indicates the rain that a location may receive. An example of a possible rainfall range is 2–6 mm.
The lower value has a 75% chance of being exceeded and the upper value a 25% chance. If the forecast is reliable, the upper figure should be exceeded around 25% of the time and the lower 75% of the time. (The lower threshold changed from 50% to 75% in 2022.)
In 2023–24, the Bureau's next-day rainfall range values provided a good indication of observed rainfall based on statistical performance metrics.

Accuracy of the rainfall range forecast for the next day across 500 locations when compared to observed rainfall
Wind forecasts
Wind information, particularly wind speed and direction, is important for marine activities, aviation, energy and agriculture. We have a network of wind recorders to verify wind forecasts across a range of urban, rural and coastal areas.

In 2023–24, for coastal areas, 87.1% of wind forecasts for the next day were correctly predicted to within 5 knots.
When looking across all urban, rural and coastal areas, 91% of forecast wind speeds were within 5 knots.

Percentage of wind speed forecasts for the next day across selected coastal locations that were accurate to within 5 knots, showing year-to-year changes
Flood forecasts
We provide flood forecasting and warning services for most major rivers in Australia. To do this, we work with other government authorities, such as:
- state and territory emergency services
- water agencies
- local councils.
To assess forecast performance, we measure the percentage of:
- peak river height predictions within a specified range of the observed peak – for example, 0.3 m
- forecasts that meet service level specification targets for lead time to customers.
In 2023–24:
- 74% of flood forecast peak height predictions met service level specification targets (typically within 0.3 m)
- 69% of flood forecast lead times met service level specification targets (which vary in lead time for each river).
Learn more about service level specifications in our Flood knowledge centre.