Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for winter 2025.
Let's start with recent conditions. Autumn was warmer than average for most of Australia, especially across southern regions. Daytime temperatures were warmest on record for autumn in parts of Western Australia and the south-east.
While it was a warm season overall, clear skies brought cooler than average overnight temperatures across parts of southern Australia during May, with widespread frost on occasions.
We've seen two extremes for autumn rainfall across the country. Autumn was dry in the south, with less rain-bearing weather systems than usual. This has exacerbated long-term rainfall deficiencies for many areas. In contrast, it was a wet autumn across the north and east. Tropical activity, including Tropical Cyclone Alfred and a low pressure trough over western Queensland, brought widespread rainfall and flooding during March and April. In late May, heavy rainfall in the New South Wales Hunter and Mid North Coast regions led to extensive flooding, with multi-day totals reaching over 500 mm. For some agricultural regions in the south, autumn break rainfall came late, while for others, it has yet to arrive.
Soil moisture is below average in the west and across much of the south. Very dry soils in the south-east contributed to a severe dust storm in late May. In the north, including much of Queensland and along the New South Wales east coast, soils are wetter than average for this time of year.
Total water storage in Australia is at 65% of combined capacity across the country. While many storages in the south are below 40%, most storages in the north and east are at or near capacity with some greater than 100% full. Combined storages in the Murray–Darling Basin are 57% full. This is 20% less than this time last year. Waters from the March rain in western Queensland reached the Menindee Lakes in late April, increasing the combined storage by over 20% through May. During May, streamflow was above average for much of the east and scattered areas in the north, but below average in the south.
And now for the winter long-range forecast.
It's likely to be a wetter than average winter across much of mainland Australia. The dry season is underway in the north. Much of this region typically receives only small amounts of rainfall during winter. For areas in the south-east and south-west, including parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, that have been affected by prolonged dry conditions, there is no strong indication of above or below average rainfall. This means a range of outcomes are equally possible for these areas – including above, below or near-average winter rainfall.
While we're entering a cooler time of year, temperatures this winter are very likely to be above average nationwide. There is an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights across Australia. However, cold spells and frosts are still possible.
Australia's fire agencies advise that there's an increased risk of fire this winter across parts of South Australia and Victoria. Dry fuels from the prolonged warm and dry conditions are contributing to the unseasonable fire risk in these areas.
For June to August, waters around Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average. Forecasts indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation will remain neutral, while the Indian Ocean Dipole may tend towards a negative pattern late in the season.
In summary, we're likely to see:
- a wetter than average winter for much of mainland Australia
- warmer than average temperatures
- and an increased fire risk for parts of South Australia and Victoria.
We update our long-range forecasts weekly, which also include the rainfall amounts that have a 75% chance of occurring. Select your location to find out more.
Let's start with recent conditions. Autumn was warmer than average for most of Australia, especially across southern regions. Daytime temperatures were warmest on record for autumn in parts of Western Australia and the south-east.
While it was a warm season overall, clear skies brought cooler than average overnight temperatures across parts of southern Australia during May, with widespread frost on occasions.
We've seen two extremes for autumn rainfall across the country. Autumn was dry in the south, with less rain-bearing weather systems than usual. This has exacerbated long-term rainfall deficiencies for many areas. In contrast, it was a wet autumn across the north and east. Tropical activity, including Tropical Cyclone Alfred and a low pressure trough over western Queensland, brought widespread rainfall and flooding during March and April. In late May, heavy rainfall in the New South Wales Hunter and Mid North Coast regions led to extensive flooding, with multi-day totals reaching over 500 mm. For some agricultural regions in the south, autumn break rainfall came late, while for others, it has yet to arrive.
Soil moisture is below average in the west and across much of the south. Very dry soils in the south-east contributed to a severe dust storm in late May. In the north, including much of Queensland and along the New South Wales east coast, soils are wetter than average for this time of year.
Total water storage in Australia is at 65% of combined capacity across the country. While many storages in the south are below 40%, most storages in the north and east are at or near capacity with some greater than 100% full. Combined storages in the Murray–Darling Basin are 57% full. This is 20% less than this time last year. Waters from the March rain in western Queensland reached the Menindee Lakes in late April, increasing the combined storage by over 20% through May. During May, streamflow was above average for much of the east and scattered areas in the north, but below average in the south.
And now for the winter long-range forecast.
It's likely to be a wetter than average winter across much of mainland Australia. The dry season is underway in the north. Much of this region typically receives only small amounts of rainfall during winter. For areas in the south-east and south-west, including parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, that have been affected by prolonged dry conditions, there is no strong indication of above or below average rainfall. This means a range of outcomes are equally possible for these areas – including above, below or near-average winter rainfall.
While we're entering a cooler time of year, temperatures this winter are very likely to be above average nationwide. There is an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights across Australia. However, cold spells and frosts are still possible.
Australia's fire agencies advise that there's an increased risk of fire this winter across parts of South Australia and Victoria. Dry fuels from the prolonged warm and dry conditions are contributing to the unseasonable fire risk in these areas.
For June to August, waters around Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average. Forecasts indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation will remain neutral, while the Indian Ocean Dipole may tend towards a negative pattern late in the season.
In summary, we're likely to see:
- a wetter than average winter for much of mainland Australia
- warmer than average temperatures
- and an increased fire risk for parts of South Australia and Victoria.
We update our long-range forecasts weekly, which also include the rainfall amounts that have a 75% chance of occurring. Select your location to find out more.
Long-range forecast: Winter: June to August 2025
29 May 2025
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.