Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for February to April 2025. Let's start by looking at recent conditions.

For January to date, it has been drier than usual for much of northern, central and parts of south-eastern Australia. A tropical low passing over the Pilbara coast in Western Australia, and storm events along the New South Wales coast contributed to above average January rainfall in these regions for the month.

The monsoon has yet to become fully established across northern Australia. Once the monsoon arrives, it will be the latest onset at Darwin since records began in 1957.

Prolonged heatwaves led to above average temperatures across large areas of Australia in January. In southern Western Australia, many locations had their warmest January on record.

Soil moisture is average to above average along the east coast and in large parts of Western Australia, but below average for much of northern, central and southern Australia.

Combined, water storages across Australia are 71% full. Many storages are higher than 80% full, including all capital cities except Adelaide and Perth. For the Murray–Darling Basin, the combined storage level is currently 67%, approximately 18% lower than this time last year.

Looking ahead at the long-range forecast for February to April: Above average rainfall is likely across much of northern Australia and parts of the south. In some southern areas rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for the three months. There's an increased chance of unusually high rainfall across northern and eastern Australia, with the highest chances across parts of northern Queensland.

For January to March, near median to high streamflow is likely for most sites, especially in eastern and northern Australia. Low streamflow is likely in scattered areas, mostly across the south-east.

February to April days are likely to be warmer than average across most of southern and eastern Australia. Across much of northern Australia, daytime temperatures are likely to be within the typical range.

However, February to April nights are very likely to be warmer than average nationally. There's a high chance of unusually warm nights right across Australia, with the highest chance in the north, east and far west. Warm nights following hot days can increase the risk of heatwaves. Severe heatwaves can be dangerous for many people.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast to continue, including in waters around Australia. Warm oceans can increase the severity of storms, rainfall intensity, and the likelihood of marine heatwaves. Warm oceans can also fuel systems such as tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone season tends to peak around February and March. It only takes one tropical cyclone to significantly impact communities.

In summary, for February to April, we're likely to see:
- Above average rainfall for much of northern Australia and parts of the south.
- An increased chance of unusually high rainfall in the north.
- Warmer than usual days across the south.
- Warmer than usual nights nationwide.
- And an increased risk of heatwaves.

Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the long-range forecast and current severe weather warnings. Bye for now.

Long-range forecast: Thu 30 Jan

Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.

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