Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for May to July. The northern wet season has ended and temperatures across the country are starting to cool.

Let's begin with recent conditions. April temperatures have been warmer than average across most of southern Australia and parts of the north. Days have been slightly cooler than average in inland Queensland where heavy rainfall has occurred, and in the far northern tropics.

April has seen drier-than-average conditions continue in parts of the south. In contrast, April has been wetter than usual across much of the north and areas including the east coast and parts of the south-west. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol brought heavy rain to the northern Kimberley coast in Western Australia mid-month.

Northern Australia's wet season has ended. Large parts of Western Australia and Queensland had above average rainfall this season. Townsville and surrounds had their highest wet season rainfall on record. However, the Northern Territory had close to average rainfall.

The Australian tropical cyclone season has also ended. We've had 12 tropical cyclones this season, which is close to the long-term average of 11, but the highest number of cyclones in 18 years. Four made landfall over mainland Australia, which is also close to the long-term average.

Flooding remains ongoing across western Queensland, northern inland New South Wales, and north-east South Australia, as floodwaters move slowly downstream. Floodwaters are draining slowly into the Darling River catchment in New South Wales and towards Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre in South Australia.

With the impact of recent rainfall, soils are currently wetter than usual for much of the country. However, continued low rainfall has resulted in below average soil moisture for much of the south-eastern agricultural areas.

Australia's combined water storage is around 65% of capacity overall. At the end of the northern wet season, many storages in the north and east of the country are full. However, in the south, many storages remain below 50% at the start of the southern growing season.

Let's look at the long-range forecast for May to July.

There’s an increased chance of below average rainfall for parts of the south-west and south-east for May to July. Northern Australia typically has low rainfall at this time of year. The month of May is very likely to be drier than usual across most of Australia.

For April to June, near median to low streamflow is likely for most sites, especially in the south-east, south-west, and scattered areas in the north. High streamflow is likely for many sites in the east.

While Australia continues to cool at this time of year, above average daytime and night-time temperatures are still very likely across the country over the coming months.

Ocean temperatures for May to July around Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is forecast to stay neutral.

In summary, we're likely to see:
- below average rainfall in parts of the south-east and south-west for May to July
- widespread dry conditions in May, and
- warmer than usual days and nights from May to July.

We update our long-range forecasts weekly, which also include the rainfall amounts that have a 75% chance of occurring. Select your location to find out more. Bye for now.