Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for July to September 2025. Let's start with recent conditions.
June daytime temperatures to date have been above average across some areas including Tasmania, most of Western Australia and South Australia. Across much of the east and north, daytime temperatures have been close to average. Overnight temperatures have been cooler than average across parts of the south-east and the north due to clear skies across much of the country. Several stations have seen their lowest daily minimum temperature for June on record. Overnight temperatures have been warmer than average across parts of southern Australia and northern Queensland.
It has been a drier than average month so far for large parts of the country. Cape York Peninsula received unseasonably high rainfall during mid-June. While recent rainfall has been welcome across the south, severe long-term rainfall deficiencies dating back to February 2024 persist in some areas.
A strong cold front in early June resulted in above-average snow levels across Australia's alpine regions.
Despite recent rainfall, root zone soil moisture remains below average across large areas in the south. Soil moisture remains above average for parts of the north and east.
Total water storage in Australia is around 65% of combined capacity across the country. Total storages in the Murray–Darling Basin are 60% full, around 18% lower than this time last year. While June rainfall has provided inflows into some storages across the south, many storage levels have shown a steady decline in recent months, including Victoria's Wimmera-Mallee region and the South Australian Gulf, where storage levels are the lowest since 2003.
And now for the July to September long-range forecast. July rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of Australia's south-east and south-west. While it is the dry season across northern Australia, there is a slightly increased chance of above-average rainfall in the north-west and parts of the interior. For the three months of July to September, above-average rainfall is more likely across northern, inland and some eastern areas. However, much of the south-east and south-west have roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. Small areas of Western Australia, Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be drier than usual.
During June to August, relatively low streamflow is likely at most sites in the south. Relatively high streamflow is likely for most sites across the north-east and scattered areas in the south-east.
Daytime temperatures for July to September are likely to be above average for much of the country. However, above-average temperatures are less likely for inland areas, aligning with forecast wetter than average conditions and associated cloud cover. Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
For July to September, waters around much of Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average.
In summary, we're likely to see:
- a wetter than average July to September for parts of inland and northern Australia
- roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall in the south-east and south-west
- and warmer than average days and nights likely for most of the country.
We update our long-range forecast weekly, which includes maps of historical rainfall and temperature averages. Bye for now.
June daytime temperatures to date have been above average across some areas including Tasmania, most of Western Australia and South Australia. Across much of the east and north, daytime temperatures have been close to average. Overnight temperatures have been cooler than average across parts of the south-east and the north due to clear skies across much of the country. Several stations have seen their lowest daily minimum temperature for June on record. Overnight temperatures have been warmer than average across parts of southern Australia and northern Queensland.
It has been a drier than average month so far for large parts of the country. Cape York Peninsula received unseasonably high rainfall during mid-June. While recent rainfall has been welcome across the south, severe long-term rainfall deficiencies dating back to February 2024 persist in some areas.
A strong cold front in early June resulted in above-average snow levels across Australia's alpine regions.
Despite recent rainfall, root zone soil moisture remains below average across large areas in the south. Soil moisture remains above average for parts of the north and east.
Total water storage in Australia is around 65% of combined capacity across the country. Total storages in the Murray–Darling Basin are 60% full, around 18% lower than this time last year. While June rainfall has provided inflows into some storages across the south, many storage levels have shown a steady decline in recent months, including Victoria's Wimmera-Mallee region and the South Australian Gulf, where storage levels are the lowest since 2003.
And now for the July to September long-range forecast. July rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of Australia's south-east and south-west. While it is the dry season across northern Australia, there is a slightly increased chance of above-average rainfall in the north-west and parts of the interior. For the three months of July to September, above-average rainfall is more likely across northern, inland and some eastern areas. However, much of the south-east and south-west have roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. Small areas of Western Australia, Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be drier than usual.
During June to August, relatively low streamflow is likely at most sites in the south. Relatively high streamflow is likely for most sites across the north-east and scattered areas in the south-east.
Daytime temperatures for July to September are likely to be above average for much of the country. However, above-average temperatures are less likely for inland areas, aligning with forecast wetter than average conditions and associated cloud cover. Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
For July to September, waters around much of Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average.
In summary, we're likely to see:
- a wetter than average July to September for parts of inland and northern Australia
- roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall in the south-east and south-west
- and warmer than average days and nights likely for most of the country.
We update our long-range forecast weekly, which includes maps of historical rainfall and temperature averages. Bye for now.
Long-range forecast: July to September 2025
26 June 2025
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.