Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for autumn 2025. Let's start by looking at recent conditions.
Summer has been warmer than usual for most of the country. Parts of the west and some central areas had their warmest summer on record. Above average summer rainfall was recorded over parts of Western Australia as a result of Tropical Cyclone Zelia, while the monsoon trough brought persistent rain over north Queensland. The coastal area between Townsville and Ingham had its highest February monthly rainfall on record – some locations had almost 3 metres of rainfall. However, some areas of northern Australia had a drier summer than usual, with the monsoon arriving in Darwin on the 7th of February – almost 6 weeks later than usual and the latest monsoon onset since records began in 1957.
Parts of central and southern Australia also had a drier summer, including parts of Victoria and South Australia that have been much drier than usual for more than 12 months. We've had multiple bushfires across parts of the south, including in western Tasmania.
Soil moisture continues to be below average across large parts of southern and central Australia. Further north, soil moisture is mostly average to above average, with relatively higher soil moisture where tropical systems have been active.
Combined, water storages across Australia are currently 69% full. While many storages in the south are below 50%, most storages in the north and east are at, or near capacity, with some greater than 100% full. For the Murray–Darling Basin, the combined water storage level is currently 62%, nearly 20% lower than this time last year.
Let's look at the long-range forecast for autumn.
Rainfall across the south and much of the interior is expected to be within the typical range for the next three months. Above average rainfall is likely in parts of the far north-west, while below average rainfall is likely for parts of the north-east. For eastern Australia, March rainfall will be influenced by the final track and strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and active monsoon bursts are still possible in the north at this time of year, which can bring particularly heavy falls.
For February to April, near median to high streamflow is likely for most sites, especially in eastern and northern Australia. Low streamflow is likely for scattered areas in the north and in the south.
Autumn days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across almost all of Australia. There's an increased chance of unusually warm autumn days across Australia, with the highest chance in the east, central and far south-east of the country. There is also a high chance of unusually warm nights right across Australia, with the highest chance in the north, east and far west. These forecasts highlight the risk of early autumn heatwaves for much of Australia.
Australia’s fire agencies have advised an increased risk of fire this autumn for southern areas of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The risk includes the Adelaide and Melbourne areas. While the peak of the typical bushfire season has passed, destructive fires can still occur across southern Australia during autumn. Communities are urged to review their bushfire and emergency plans.
It is still tropical cyclone season, and warmer than average ocean temperatures around Australia are forecast to continue. Warm oceans can fuel systems such as tropical cyclones, and can increase the severity of storms, rainfall intensity, and the likelihood of marine heatwaves.
In summary, for autumn, we're likely to see:
- Rainfall in the typical range for the season in most areas.
- Rainfall in the east may be influenced by the final track and strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
- Above average rainfall across parts of the far north-west but below average rainfall for parts of the north-east.
- Warmer than usual days and nights.
- A risk of tropical cyclones.
- An increased risk of early autumn heatwaves and fire for southern parts of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.
We update the long-range forecast regularly. You can select your location on the website to find out more and stay up to date with current severe weather warnings. Bye for now.
Summer has been warmer than usual for most of the country. Parts of the west and some central areas had their warmest summer on record. Above average summer rainfall was recorded over parts of Western Australia as a result of Tropical Cyclone Zelia, while the monsoon trough brought persistent rain over north Queensland. The coastal area between Townsville and Ingham had its highest February monthly rainfall on record – some locations had almost 3 metres of rainfall. However, some areas of northern Australia had a drier summer than usual, with the monsoon arriving in Darwin on the 7th of February – almost 6 weeks later than usual and the latest monsoon onset since records began in 1957.
Parts of central and southern Australia also had a drier summer, including parts of Victoria and South Australia that have been much drier than usual for more than 12 months. We've had multiple bushfires across parts of the south, including in western Tasmania.
Soil moisture continues to be below average across large parts of southern and central Australia. Further north, soil moisture is mostly average to above average, with relatively higher soil moisture where tropical systems have been active.
Combined, water storages across Australia are currently 69% full. While many storages in the south are below 50%, most storages in the north and east are at, or near capacity, with some greater than 100% full. For the Murray–Darling Basin, the combined water storage level is currently 62%, nearly 20% lower than this time last year.
Let's look at the long-range forecast for autumn.
Rainfall across the south and much of the interior is expected to be within the typical range for the next three months. Above average rainfall is likely in parts of the far north-west, while below average rainfall is likely for parts of the north-east. For eastern Australia, March rainfall will be influenced by the final track and strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and active monsoon bursts are still possible in the north at this time of year, which can bring particularly heavy falls.
For February to April, near median to high streamflow is likely for most sites, especially in eastern and northern Australia. Low streamflow is likely for scattered areas in the north and in the south.
Autumn days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across almost all of Australia. There's an increased chance of unusually warm autumn days across Australia, with the highest chance in the east, central and far south-east of the country. There is also a high chance of unusually warm nights right across Australia, with the highest chance in the north, east and far west. These forecasts highlight the risk of early autumn heatwaves for much of Australia.
Australia’s fire agencies have advised an increased risk of fire this autumn for southern areas of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The risk includes the Adelaide and Melbourne areas. While the peak of the typical bushfire season has passed, destructive fires can still occur across southern Australia during autumn. Communities are urged to review their bushfire and emergency plans.
It is still tropical cyclone season, and warmer than average ocean temperatures around Australia are forecast to continue. Warm oceans can fuel systems such as tropical cyclones, and can increase the severity of storms, rainfall intensity, and the likelihood of marine heatwaves.
In summary, for autumn, we're likely to see:
- Rainfall in the typical range for the season in most areas.
- Rainfall in the east may be influenced by the final track and strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
- Above average rainfall across parts of the far north-west but below average rainfall for parts of the north-east.
- Warmer than usual days and nights.
- A risk of tropical cyclones.
- An increased risk of early autumn heatwaves and fire for southern parts of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.
We update the long-range forecast regularly. You can select your location on the website to find out more and stay up to date with current severe weather warnings. Bye for now.
Long-range forecast: Autumn: March to May 2025
28 February 2025
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.