Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for October to December 2024.
Let's start with recent conditions. September was wetter than average for most of the country, with unseasonable rain for large areas of the north-west. It was also a wetter than average month for Tasmania. But it was drier than average for the southern mainland and central-eastern Queensland. In Tasmania, heavy rainfall at the start of the month led to widespread flooding in the Derwent Valley.
September days and nights were warmer than average across much of Australia, with highest September temperatures on record for parts of the Kimberley and the Pilbara. Cooler temperatures were seen in small pockets of Western Australia and New South Wales.
Across most of Australia, soil moisture was average to above average in September. Soils were drier than average for parts of the south and scattered areas of the central north. In Tasmania, soils were much wetter than average for this time of year including in areas where rainfall has been below average since February this year.
Combined, storages across Australia are around 76% full. In the east, many storages are at or near capacity, with some greater than 100% full, including a number in Tasmania. However, overall storage in Tasmania is only slightly higher than this time last year. For some areas, there's been a decrease in water storage since this time last year, including in the South Australian Gulf and the Murray–Darling Basin.
In September, streamflow was average across most of the country but above average for scattered areas in the north and east of the mainland, and northern Tasmania. However, streamflow was below average in the south-east of the mainland, with many sites setting record lows for the month of September.
The long-range forecast shows October to December is likely to be wetter than average across most of Australia. And there's an increased chance of a wetter than usual start to the northern Australian wet season. Full storages and wet soils, together with the forecast for above average rainfall, means an elevated risk of flooding over the coming months in the north and east of the mainland, and across Tasmania. Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia, especially in northern areas and Tasmania. And there's an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures for much of Australia.
The spring bushfire outlook, released by Australia's fire agencies, shows an increased risk of fire for large parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, western Victoria, and the far south-east of South Australia. Now is the time to understand your local risk and review your bushfire and emergency plans, heeding the advice of local fire authorities.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for much of the globe, including around Australia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are currently neutral. There is some chance of a weak, short-lived La Niña developing later in the year, but it is not guaranteed.
In summary, our forecast for October to December shows above average rainfall is likely for most of Australia, with warmer than average days and nights and increased chance of unusually high temperatures, and there is also an increased risk of bushfires in some regions.
We refresh the long-range forecast weekly with the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead. Select your location on the website for more details. Bye for now.
Let's start with recent conditions. September was wetter than average for most of the country, with unseasonable rain for large areas of the north-west. It was also a wetter than average month for Tasmania. But it was drier than average for the southern mainland and central-eastern Queensland. In Tasmania, heavy rainfall at the start of the month led to widespread flooding in the Derwent Valley.
September days and nights were warmer than average across much of Australia, with highest September temperatures on record for parts of the Kimberley and the Pilbara. Cooler temperatures were seen in small pockets of Western Australia and New South Wales.
Across most of Australia, soil moisture was average to above average in September. Soils were drier than average for parts of the south and scattered areas of the central north. In Tasmania, soils were much wetter than average for this time of year including in areas where rainfall has been below average since February this year.
Combined, storages across Australia are around 76% full. In the east, many storages are at or near capacity, with some greater than 100% full, including a number in Tasmania. However, overall storage in Tasmania is only slightly higher than this time last year. For some areas, there's been a decrease in water storage since this time last year, including in the South Australian Gulf and the Murray–Darling Basin.
In September, streamflow was average across most of the country but above average for scattered areas in the north and east of the mainland, and northern Tasmania. However, streamflow was below average in the south-east of the mainland, with many sites setting record lows for the month of September.
The long-range forecast shows October to December is likely to be wetter than average across most of Australia. And there's an increased chance of a wetter than usual start to the northern Australian wet season. Full storages and wet soils, together with the forecast for above average rainfall, means an elevated risk of flooding over the coming months in the north and east of the mainland, and across Tasmania. Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia, especially in northern areas and Tasmania. And there's an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures for much of Australia.
The spring bushfire outlook, released by Australia's fire agencies, shows an increased risk of fire for large parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, western Victoria, and the far south-east of South Australia. Now is the time to understand your local risk and review your bushfire and emergency plans, heeding the advice of local fire authorities.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for much of the globe, including around Australia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are currently neutral. There is some chance of a weak, short-lived La Niña developing later in the year, but it is not guaranteed.
In summary, our forecast for October to December shows above average rainfall is likely for most of Australia, with warmer than average days and nights and increased chance of unusually high temperatures, and there is also an increased risk of bushfires in some regions.
We refresh the long-range forecast weekly with the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead. Select your location on the website for more details. Bye for now.
Climate and water long-range forecast: Thu 26 Sep
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.