For September to November our long-range forecast shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be within the typical seasonal range for much of the eastern half of Australia
- Drier than average conditions are likely for much of the west
- And there is an increased chance of unusually warm maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia.
Most areas had close to average rainfall in July. While some parts of the interior had above average rainfall, it was drier than usual for parts of the east and west. July maximum temperatures were close to average for most of Australia. Warmer than usual days were observed over parts of the north, south and west with cooler daytime temperatures for some eastern and central areas. July minimum temperatures were also near average for large areas. While nights were warmer than average for much of the north, east and west, some scattered areas had cooler minimum temperatures for July.
August to date soil moisture is average to above average for much of the country. Soil moisture has been below average in parts of the south, particularly in western Victoria and south-east South Australia, where there have been serious rainfall deficiencies over the last 12 months.
September to November rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for the eastern half of Australia; however in the west, rainfall is likely to be below average. October is the beginning of the northern wet season. This means wetter conditions are expected to develop over the coming months in parts of the north. The Western Australia Kimberley region and the Top End of the Northern Territory typically see more than 100 mm for September to November, while most of north-western and central Australia remains mostly dry. Much of the south-east of Australia has more than 200 mm of rainfall on average.
Streamflow forecasts show most sites across the south are likely to have low streamflow for August to October, with some sites across the east likely to have near median to high streamflow.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm maximum temperatures across most of Australia, especially across the north. The chance of heatwaves increases as we approach the warmer months. And there is also an increased chance of warmer than usual nights, especially across northern Australia and Tasmania.
Around Australia, ocean temperatures are likely to continue to be warmer than average. The Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are neutral. Compared to earlier forecasts, the chance of La Niña developing this year has reduced.
We update the long-range forecast regularly with the latest rainfall and temperature details. Select your location on the website to find out more. Visit bom.gov.au/climate
- Rainfall is likely to be within the typical seasonal range for much of the eastern half of Australia
- Drier than average conditions are likely for much of the west
- And there is an increased chance of unusually warm maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia.
Most areas had close to average rainfall in July. While some parts of the interior had above average rainfall, it was drier than usual for parts of the east and west. July maximum temperatures were close to average for most of Australia. Warmer than usual days were observed over parts of the north, south and west with cooler daytime temperatures for some eastern and central areas. July minimum temperatures were also near average for large areas. While nights were warmer than average for much of the north, east and west, some scattered areas had cooler minimum temperatures for July.
August to date soil moisture is average to above average for much of the country. Soil moisture has been below average in parts of the south, particularly in western Victoria and south-east South Australia, where there have been serious rainfall deficiencies over the last 12 months.
September to November rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for the eastern half of Australia; however in the west, rainfall is likely to be below average. October is the beginning of the northern wet season. This means wetter conditions are expected to develop over the coming months in parts of the north. The Western Australia Kimberley region and the Top End of the Northern Territory typically see more than 100 mm for September to November, while most of north-western and central Australia remains mostly dry. Much of the south-east of Australia has more than 200 mm of rainfall on average.
Streamflow forecasts show most sites across the south are likely to have low streamflow for August to October, with some sites across the east likely to have near median to high streamflow.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm maximum temperatures across most of Australia, especially across the north. The chance of heatwaves increases as we approach the warmer months. And there is also an increased chance of warmer than usual nights, especially across northern Australia and Tasmania.
Around Australia, ocean temperatures are likely to continue to be warmer than average. The Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are neutral. Compared to earlier forecasts, the chance of La Niña developing this year has reduced.
We update the long-range forecast regularly with the latest rainfall and temperature details. Select your location on the website to find out more. Visit bom.gov.au/climate
Climate and water long-range forecast: Thu 15 Aug
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.