Welcome to the Bureau's summer long-range forecast.
Let's start with a review of spring. To date, spring has been much wetter than usual for large areas of the west and around the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales. In contrast, spring has so far been drier than average in parts of southern and eastern Australia. Spring to date has been warmer than average across Australia. Prolonged heatwaves contributed to record-high spring temperatures for large parts of the north.
Soil moisture is currently average to above average in most areas, but below average for large parts of the south-east and scattered areas elsewhere.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 72% full. Many storages are higher than 80% full, including in all capital cities except Adelaide and Perth. For the Murray–Darling Basin, which supplies most of Australia's agricultural water, the combined storage level is currently 73%, around 14% lower than this time last year.
For November to date, streamflow has been below average for most of Australia, especially in the south-west and large parts of the east. Streamflow has been above average for parts of the east and scattered areas in the north.
Now for the long-range forecast for the summer months. Above average rainfall is likely across Australia at the start of the season. In recent weeks, the likelihood of above average December rainfall has increased compared with earlier forecasts. But from January, rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season across most of the country. For parts of eastern, western and northern Australia, high streamflows, wet soils and a forecast for above average rainfall means an increased risk of riverine and flash flooding.
Summer is likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia. Some areas are likely to have more typical summer daytime temperatures, including parts of New South Wales and most of inland Western Australia. Summer nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the country. Across most of Australia, there's a high chance of unusually warm summer nights, with highest chances in the north and west. Warm nights following hot days can increase the risk of heatwaves. We issue heatwave forecasts and warnings through to the end of March.
The bushfire outlook for summer, issued by Australia’s fire agencies, shows an increased risk for areas in Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. Communities are urged to prepare and review bushfire and emergency plans.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast across much of the globe, including in waters around Australia. Warm oceans enhance atmospheric moisture and energy, which can increase the severity of storms and enhance rainfall.
This summer, we're likely to see:
- above average rainfall for most areas in December
- typical rainfall range for most areas from January
- warmer nights than usual everywhere
- increased risk of heatwaves
- increased bushfire risk for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the long-range forecast. Stay safe over the summer. Bye for now.
Let's start with a review of spring. To date, spring has been much wetter than usual for large areas of the west and around the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales. In contrast, spring has so far been drier than average in parts of southern and eastern Australia. Spring to date has been warmer than average across Australia. Prolonged heatwaves contributed to record-high spring temperatures for large parts of the north.
Soil moisture is currently average to above average in most areas, but below average for large parts of the south-east and scattered areas elsewhere.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 72% full. Many storages are higher than 80% full, including in all capital cities except Adelaide and Perth. For the Murray–Darling Basin, which supplies most of Australia's agricultural water, the combined storage level is currently 73%, around 14% lower than this time last year.
For November to date, streamflow has been below average for most of Australia, especially in the south-west and large parts of the east. Streamflow has been above average for parts of the east and scattered areas in the north.
Now for the long-range forecast for the summer months. Above average rainfall is likely across Australia at the start of the season. In recent weeks, the likelihood of above average December rainfall has increased compared with earlier forecasts. But from January, rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season across most of the country. For parts of eastern, western and northern Australia, high streamflows, wet soils and a forecast for above average rainfall means an increased risk of riverine and flash flooding.
Summer is likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia. Some areas are likely to have more typical summer daytime temperatures, including parts of New South Wales and most of inland Western Australia. Summer nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the country. Across most of Australia, there's a high chance of unusually warm summer nights, with highest chances in the north and west. Warm nights following hot days can increase the risk of heatwaves. We issue heatwave forecasts and warnings through to the end of March.
The bushfire outlook for summer, issued by Australia’s fire agencies, shows an increased risk for areas in Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. Communities are urged to prepare and review bushfire and emergency plans.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast across much of the globe, including in waters around Australia. Warm oceans enhance atmospheric moisture and energy, which can increase the severity of storms and enhance rainfall.
This summer, we're likely to see:
- above average rainfall for most areas in December
- typical rainfall range for most areas from January
- warmer nights than usual everywhere
- increased risk of heatwaves
- increased bushfire risk for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the long-range forecast. Stay safe over the summer. Bye for now.
Climate and water long-range forecast: Summer 2024
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.